Todd Harrison
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• Despite the deleveraging process many companies have undertaken, on an EBITDA/Debt ratio junk rated companies are as leveraged as they have ever been thanks to the "complete trashing" of cash flows. MS expects leverage ratios to rise even further and, therefore, from a "leverage-risk to yield" basis, junk spreads are way too tight to reward buyers for the underlying default risk.
• In the residential Option ARMs market, delinquency rates as a percentage of original balances are running higher than they were in subprime. On the other side of the ledger – and confirming what is intuitively logical – recoveries as a percentage of balances are significantly lower and falling, which will continue to put heavy pressure on home values. In the Alt-A market things are not going that well either.
• In the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) world, Standard & Poor recently implemented new tests to determine the downgrade of various CMBS vintages. The test for the 2004 issues was relaxed, which is likely to spare from downgrade 65% of AAA rated CMBS which had been put on negative watch. Under the prior, stricter test, 80% of the watch list issues were in danger of downgrades. Are we really to believe that the relaxation of the testing standards for issues that are coming up for refi between now and the next two years are just a coincidence?
• What caritas the S & P showed toward the 2004 CMBS it apparently took it out on the mezzanine CMBS of 2006 and later. Most AAA mezz tranches are or will be downgraded to A/BBB- grades, while all junior AAAs tranches have gone straight to junk.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Tom Fant.

The employment number was better than expected. No question about it. Looking behind the number, I see all industries still contracting albeit less so except education/health.

Leisure was up but only 3k. Federal government hiring was negative for the first time this year. I'm still watching the hiring of temp workers, which is still negative but just barely at -7k which is much better than previous reports and could be a sign of good things to come.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Smita Sadana.

A trade doesn't simply have an initiation and finale – the most important part of a trade is its evolution and constant re-assessment if the original thesis that the trade was initiated with, still holds true.

On that note, let's look at First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR). I started a short position in it on 6/1 when instead of participating in the market advance, it lagged (due to a LA Times story that FSLR's acquisition of "strategic land rights" is under scrutiny). Recall, it came on the heels of a cautious mention in Barron's on May 26th. So, both times, FSLR reacted negatively to negative news and volume picked up on both those instances.

Today, Pacific Crest Securities reiterated its buy rating on FSLR and called the recent weakness a "buying opportunity."

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This post was written by Minyanville contributor Steve Smith.

Shares of CardioNet (NASDAQ: BEAT) shares are off $0.20 to $18.60 and option volume is three times the daily average. The focus is buying in the June $17.50 put which has seen over 5,100 contracts trade, 90% of which occurred at the ask, and exceeds prior open interest of if 1,018 contracts. This new put buying is driving up implied volatility 14% to the 65% level this morning.

CREE Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) shares are up over 12% to $31.30 after the electronics parts manufacturer pre-announced and raised guidance. Options running 3X the daily average with 85% of trades on the call side. Active strikes are the include June $30 call and July $30 calls, with latter's volume exceeding strike's of 295 exceeding prior open interest. Notable is buying in longer dated series; the Sep $30 call, Dec $35 call and Jan 2010 $30 call have all traded over 200 contracts all of which exceed their strike's prior open interest.

Patriot Coal (NYSE: PCX) is up 19 cents to $9.15 and 2,500 Jun 10 calls traded. Nearly all the volume has been done at the asking price suggesting this speculative call buying.

This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Smita Sadana.

A stock that I am keenly watching today is Riverbed Technology (NASDAQ: RVBD), which is up in this down market. Minyans might remember that we had concluded a successful long trade in this stock. For more please see my note on April 24th.

Here are some thoughts on the new technical picture:

• Earnings beat expectations. RVBD reported EPS of 13 cents vs. consensus of 10 cents. The revenue number was also higher.
  
  
• Several brokers have enthusiastically raised their targets for RVBD. Lazard Capital raised the price target from $14 to $17, and Wedbush and William Blair upgraded the stock.
  
  
• The percentage of float shorted was 21% at the beginning of April. This stands out as the most interesting piece of data for a trader like me. Given the ignition provided by the good earnings announcement, wouldn't the shorts rush to cover?

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Minyan Peter.

I realize that these are very difficult times for financial services companies, but I learned a long time ago that the only route to progress is dealing with reality.

With that as background I would offer to any number of regional banks who reported earnings this week that the correct disclosure when writing off goodwill is not "This is a non-cash charge which should be ignored because it does not effect cash or regulatory capital" but "In hindsight we overpaid for an acquisition and based on lower forecast earnings from this business in the future, we need to write down most of the purchase price."

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.

Professor Udall,

I don't know much about the fundamentals of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), but I have been watching it trade for the past few months and that is one stock that, simply from the way it is trading, looks like it is in trouble. What are your thoughts?

-- Jessica